Lag Spike
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.52
5.42 gems
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $3.17 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.63%
6,616 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.95% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.16% – 88.11%, 6,616 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,857 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $50.68 77.97 gems | 40.0% | 142 | 171.4 | 0.83× |
| M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet | 1 in 40 | $13.29 20.45 gems | 10.5% | 145 | 171.4 | 0.85× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $7.97 12.26 gems | 6.3% | 172 | 171.4 | 1.00× |
| PP-Bizon | High Roller (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 40 | $5.57 8.57 gems | 4.4% | 170 | 171.4 | 0.99× |
| Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $3.52 5.41 gems | 22.2% | 1,372 | 1371.4 | 1.00× |
| CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.57 2.42 gems | 9.9% | 1,379 | 1371.4 | 1.01× |
| Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $0.62 0.95 gems | 3.9% | 1,390 | 1371.4 | 1.01× |
| SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 30.0% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 2.8% | 2,087 | 2057.1 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $3.52 | 89.95% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%violet 32.5%classified 2.5%#d32ee6 2.5%restricted 40.0%#4b69ff 20.0%best hit —