Price
$39.39
60.6 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $35.45 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.17%
185 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 185 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife$39.3960.6 gems$56.9687.63 gems1.45x
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$39.3960.6 gems$8.6013.23 gems0.22x
★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife$39.3960.6 gems$56.9687.63 gems1.45x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $39.39 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.1%covert 5.1%#ffd700 2.0%covert knife 5.0%Mythical 10.0%classified 10.0%mil spec 10.0%blue 25.0%restricted 32.8%best hit $1,111 (28.21x)