Last Bullet
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.83
28.97 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $16.95 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.52%
919 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 927 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $391 601 gems | 23.1% | 12 | 9.3 | 1.29× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $190 292 gems | 22.4% | 19 | 18.5 | 1.02× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $121 186 gems | 14.3% | 20 | 18.5 | 1.08× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $58.01 89.24 gems | 17.1% | 45 | 46.4 | 0.97× |
| AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 20 | $42.20 64.93 gems | 12.5% | 46 | 46.4 | 0.99× |
| SSG 08 | Red Stone (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $9.63 14.81 gems | 5.7% | 100 | 92.7 | 1.08× |
| Glock-18 | Red Tire (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $7.48 11.5 gems | 4.4% | 100 | 92.7 | 1.08× |
| P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $0.45 0.69 gems | 0.4% | 114 | 139.0 | 0.82× |
| Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · violet | 25.0% | $0.14 0.22 gems | 0.2% | 232 | 231.8 | 1.00× |
| G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 239 | 231.8 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:38 UTC | $18.83 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%Ancient 5.0%consumer 35.0%industrial 10.0%Rare 15.0%violet 25.0%best hit —