Last Resort
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$124.87
192 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $112.39 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.24%
389 openings, odds method
Variance
6.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 419 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary | 10.0% | $1,094 1,682 gems | 97.3% | 40 | 41.9 | 0.95× |
| MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $6.40 9.85 gems | 0.6% | 49 | 41.9 | 1.17× |
| FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $5.28 8.12 gems | 0.5% | 46 | 41.9 | 1.10× |
| MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $4.98 7.66 gems | 0.4% | 35 | 41.9 | 0.84× |
| Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $4.26 6.55 gems | 0.4% | 42 | 41.9 | 1.00× |
| AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $3.31 5.09 gems | 0.3% | 38 | 41.9 | 0.91× |
| PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $2.48 3.81 gems | 0.4% | 84 | 83.8 | 1.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.55 0.85 gems | 0.1% | 85 | 83.8 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryeverythingroi$125192 gems$1,0941,682 gems8.76x
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryLive kick/vaultycs$125192 gems$1,0941,682 gems8.76x
★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendaryBo.com$125192 gems$1,0941,682 gems8.76x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $125 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 10.0%classified 20.0%mil spec 30.0%covert 20.0%restricted 20.0%best hit $1,094 (8.76x)