Last Rites
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.30
15.85 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $9.27 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.46%
1,526 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,543 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $74.75 115 gems | 40.3% | 70 | 77.2 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $35.54 54.67 gems | 19.2% | 70 | 77.2 | 0.91× |
| P250 | Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $13.01 20.02 gems | 14.0% | 148 | 154.3 | 0.96× |
| Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $7.54 11.6 gems | 8.1% | 155 | 154.3 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff | 10.0% | $5.60 8.61 gems | 6.0% | 157 | 154.3 | 1.02× |
| Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $3.82 5.87 gems | 4.1% | 157 | 154.3 | 1.02× |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $2.99 4.6 gems | 3.2% | 160 | 154.3 | 1.04× |
| Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 10.0% | $2.14 3.29 gems | 2.3% | 143 | 154.3 | 0.93× |
| Desert Eagle | The Bronze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 15.0% | $1.34 2.06 gems | 2.2% | 259 | 231.4 | 1.12× |
| Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $0.32 0.49 gems | 0.5% | 224 | 231.4 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendarysmiffingtable$10.3015.85 gems$2.994.6 gems0.29x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $10.30 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%pink 5.0%classified 10.0%Mythical 10.0%#8847ff 10.0%restricted 10.0%Legendary 10.0%Uncommon 25.0%Rare 15.0%best hit —