Lava Spill
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$60.79
93.52 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $54.71 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.73%
166 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 11.0% | $139 214 gems | 28.0% | 20 | 18.9 | 1.06× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 11.0% | $106 162 gems | 21.2% | 13 | 18.9 | 0.69× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 11.0% | $71.60 110 gems | 14.4% | 20 | 18.9 | 1.06× |
| MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.0% | $49.00 75.38 gems | 10.7% | 22 | 20.6 | 1.07× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $42.24 64.98 gems | 11.6% | 20 | 25.8 | 0.78× |
| M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 40.0% | $19.21 29.55 gems | 14.0% | 77 | 68.8 | 1.12× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$60.7993.52 gems$106162 gems1.74x
★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$60.7993.52 gems$139214 gems2.29x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$60.7993.52 gems$71.60110 gems1.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $60.79 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 11.0%covert 26.0%classified 11.0%restricted 52.0%best hit —