Least
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$520.68
801 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $468.61 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.06%
110 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $7,881 12,124 gems | 16.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $5,720 8,800 gems | 12.2% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.73× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 40 | $3,006 4,624 gems | 16.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $2,944 4,530 gems | 15.7% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.82× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband | 1 in 40 | $2,085 3,208 gems | 11.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $1,562 2,403 gems | 8.3% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.36× |
| ★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic | 1 in 17 | $1,539 2,367 gems | 19.7% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.45× |
| Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 82.0% | $0.45 0.69 gems | 0.1% | 93 | 90.2 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$521801 gems$5,7208,800 gems10.99x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $521 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.5%extraordinary 2.5%contraband 2.5%classified 2.5%epic 6.0%industrial 82.0%best hit $7,881 (15.14x)