Lethality
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.15
47.92 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $28.03 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.93%
1,293 openings, odds method
Variance
12.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,310 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $692 1,065 gems | 49.4% | 21 | 26.2 | 0.80× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $335 515 gems | 23.9% | 22 | 26.2 | 0.84× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $207 319 gems | 14.8% | 26 | 26.2 | 0.99× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 50 | $127 195 gems | 9.0% | 21 | 26.2 | 0.80× |
| MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $4.16 6.4 gems | 1.0% | 86 | 91.7 | 0.94× |
| CZ75-Auto | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common | 10.0% | $1.37 2.1 gems | 0.5% | 120 | 131.0 | 0.92× |
| Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $0.97 1.49 gems | 0.5% | 213 | 196.5 | 1.08× |
| Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.63 0.97 gems | 0.4% | 286 | 262.0 | 1.09× |
| P250 | Small Game (Field-Tested)weapon · 1 | 20.0% | $0.36 0.56 gems | 0.3% | 240 | 262.0 | 0.92× |
| USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.19 0.29 gems | 0.1% | 275 | 262.0 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertVelvetTheDog$31.1547.92 gems$6921,065 gems22.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )$31.1547.92 gems$0.971.49 gems0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $31.15 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 20.0%covert 6.0%Covert 2.0%restricted 27.0%Common 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%mil spec 20.0%best hit $692 (22.23x)