Leviathan
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4,017.71
6,181 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3,615.90 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.41%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 20 | $32.5K 50,000 gems | 44.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $10.3K 15,900 gems | 28.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $4,703 7,236 gems | 13.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 10.0% | $4,188 6,443 gems | 11.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,306 2,010 gems | 1.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $8.68 13.35 gems | 0.0% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.22× |
| AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 20.0% | $6.68 10.27 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 25.0% | $1.38 2.12 gems | 0.0% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$4,0186,181 gems$10.3K15,900 gems2.57x
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4,018 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 5.0%extraordinary 10.0%covert 15.0%contraband 10.0%classified 15.0%violet 20.0%#8847ff 25.0%best hit $10.3K (2.57x)