Life Changing Luck
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.64
20.98 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $12.27 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
43.71%
3,435 openings, odds method
Variance
428.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3,435 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,543 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $8,936 13,748 gems | 72.8% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.56× |
| Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 59.9% | $4.45 6.84 gems | 21.7% | 2,147 | 2122.2 | 1.01× |
| USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $2.00 3.07 gems | 3.3% | 737 | 708.6 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 20.0% | $1.37 2.1 gems | 2.2% | 657 | 708.6 | 0.93× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.64 | 89.98% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 59.9%restricted 20.0%Mythical 20.0%best hit $8,936 (655.3x)