Light in the Dark
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.18
21.82 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $12.76 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.19%
1,986 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,043 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 200 | $466 716 gems | 18.2% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 67 | $130 199 gems | 15.2% | 28 | 30.6 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 33 | $60.64 93.29 gems | 14.3% | 51 | 61.3 | 0.83× |
| AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $49.48 76.12 gems | 11.6% | 57 | 61.3 | 0.93× |
| Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 33 | $36.49 56.14 gems | 8.6% | 69 | 61.3 | 1.13× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $21.78 33.5 gems | 5.1% | 59 | 61.3 | 0.96× |
| M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 36.0% | $6.57 10.1 gems | 18.5% | 746 | 735.5 | 1.01× |
| MAG-7 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 50.0% | $2.15 3.31 gems | 8.4% | 1,024 | 1021.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrialLouisInRussian$14.1821.82 gems$36.4956.14 gems2.57x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $14.18 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 0.5%red 1.5%Classified 3.0%classified 3.0%industrial 3.0%restricted 39.0%Uncommon 50.0%best hit —