Looking Bearish
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.15
17.15 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $10.03 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.12%
608 openings, odds method
Variance
8.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 620 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic | 1 in 100 | $323 497 gems | 32.2% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $16.07 24.73 gems | 8.0% | 34 | 31.0 | 1.10× |
| FAMAS | Meltdown (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $15.59 23.99 gems | 7.8% | 30 | 31.0 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $14.10 21.69 gems | 7.0% | 31 | 31.0 | 1.00× |
| MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $13.32 20.49 gems | 12.0% | 51 | 55.8 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical | 15.0% | $11.98 18.43 gems | 17.9% | 87 | 93.0 | 0.94× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $4.89 7.52 gems | 9.7% | 119 | 124.0 | 0.96× |
| P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $1.66 2.55 gems | 3.3% | 125 | 124.0 | 1.01× |
| Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 20.0% | $1.04 1.6 gems | 2.1% | 137 | 124.0 | 1.10× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$11.1517.15 gems$16.0724.73 gems1.44x
StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$11.1517.15 gems$4.897.52 gems0.44x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$11.1517.15 gems$16.0724.73 gems1.44x
StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$11.1517.15 gems$4.897.52 gems0.44x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $11.15 | 89.97% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 1.0%classified 44.0%Mythical 15.0%restricted 20.0%Rare 20.0%best hit —