Looking Bullish
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.45
28.38 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $16.60 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.12%
1,202 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,284 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 13 | $93.54 144 gems | 45.1% | 102 | 102.7 | 0.99× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $50.97 78.41 gems | 24.6% | 119 | 102.7 | 1.16× |
| Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $26.08 40.13 gems | 12.6% | 95 | 102.7 | 0.92× |
| Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $9.07 13.96 gems | 5.5% | 135 | 128.4 | 1.05× |
| P250 | Red Rock (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $8.42 12.95 gems | 5.1% | 120 | 128.4 | 0.93× |
| USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 27.0% | $2.90 4.46 gems | 4.7% | 356 | 346.7 | 1.03× |
| XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 29.0% | $1.45 2.23 gems | 2.5% | 357 | 372.4 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $18.45 | 89.98% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 35.0%covert 8.0%restricted 47.0%blue 10.0%best hit —