LoreFlip
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,593.24
3,990 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2,333.89 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
40.48%
58 openings, odds method
Variance
5.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 58 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $29K 44,570 gems | 62.1% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $6,742 10,373 gems | 14.4% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $2,429 3,737 gems | 10.4% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 10.0% | $1,291 1,986 gems | 5.5% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 20.0% | $774 1,190 gems | 6.6% | 15 | 11.6 | 1.29× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert | 25.0% | $84.62 130 gems | 0.9% | 15 | 14.5 | 1.03× |
| P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 25.0% | $1.51 2.33 gems | 0.0% | 13 | 14.5 | 0.90× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2,593 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 75.0%#87c7ff 25.0%best hit $6,742 (2.60x)