Cosmic
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.61
37.86 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $22.15 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.42%
404 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 516 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $247 380 gems | 11.1% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.78× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $215 331 gems | 19.5% | 14 | 10.3 | 1.36× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $150 230 gems | 20.2% | 15 | 15.5 | 0.97× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $78.40 121 gems | 14.2% | 24 | 20.6 | 1.16× |
| UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $26.01 40.02 gems | 11.7% | 48 | 51.6 | 0.93× |
| USP-S | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $9.10 14 gems | 10.3% | 139 | 129.0 | 1.08× |
| MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 30.0% | $7.01 10.78 gems | 9.5% | 141 | 154.8 | 0.91× |
| P250 | Red Rock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $3.09 4.75 gems | 3.5% | 131 | 129.0 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $24.61 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.0%extraordinary 2.0%violet 10.0%industrial 25.0%#87c7ff 30.0%restricted 25.0%best hit —