Lucky Gamma
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.39
43.68 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $25.55 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.14%
3,872 openings, odds method
Variance
27.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,948 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 200 | $1,575 2,423 gems | 30.8% | 24 | 19.7 | 1.22× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 200 | $1,098 1,689 gems | 21.5% | 18 | 19.7 | 0.91× |
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 100 | $494 760 gems | 19.3% | 39 | 39.5 | 0.99× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 100 | $361 556 gems | 14.1% | 36 | 39.5 | 0.91× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 100 | $222 342 gems | 8.7% | 39 | 39.5 | 0.99× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal | 1 in 100 | $140 215 gems | 5.5% | 40 | 39.5 | 1.01× |
| Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.0% | 3,752 | 3750.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )$28.3943.68 gems$1,5752,423 gems55.48x
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldAnonymous931767$28.3943.68 gems$1,5752,423 gems55.48x
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New)weapon · consumerhttps://kick.com/waxumfriendly$28.3943.68 gems$0.010.02 gems0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $28.39 | 89.98% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 1.5%#ffd700 1.5%sunny 1.0%Immortal 1.0%consumer 95.0%best hit $1,575 (55.48x)