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A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$756.67
1,164 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $681.00 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.70%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 20 | $7,699 11,845 gems | 56.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $1,692 2,603 gems | 37.3% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| P250 | Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified | 15.0% | $157 241 gems | 3.5% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $93.59 144 gems | 2.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $16.15 24.84 gems | 0.4% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| P250 | Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6 | 15.0% | $8.71 13.4 gems | 0.2% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $5.49 8.45 gems | 0.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $2.52 3.88 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $757 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 5.0%covert 30.0%Classified 15.0%mil spec 15.0%#d32ee6 15.0%classified 15.0%restricted 5.0%best hit $7,699 (10.18x)