M9
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$94.20
145 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $84.78 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.75%
893 openings, odds method
Variance
8.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 919 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $94.20 | 90.00% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.3%#ffd700 0.2%sunny 0.5%other 0.8%covert knife 3.3%knifes 1.0%base 45.0%Base Grade 25.0%#B0C3D9 20.0%best hit $3,830 (40.66x)