Mac10 Rush
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.36
9.78 gems
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $5.72 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.00%
6,630 openings, odds method
Variance
14.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,810 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $329 507 gems | 17.3% | 21 | 20.4 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 143 | $142 219 gems | 17.4% | 50 | 47.6 | 1.05× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · SMGs | 1 in 100 | $87.10 134 gems | 15.2% | 68 | 68.1 | 1.00× |
| MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $56.53 86.97 gems | 9.9% | 60 | 68.1 | 0.88× |
| MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $48.82 75.11 gems | 8.5% | 65 | 68.1 | 0.95× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 33 | $21.99 33.83 gems | 11.5% | 215 | 204.3 | 1.05× |
| MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $10.10 15.54 gems | 5.3% | 200 | 204.3 | 0.98× |
| MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $3.27 5.03 gems | 14.3% | 1,701 | 1702.5 | 1.00× |
| MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Common | 65.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.5% | 4,430 | 4426.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.36 | 89.94% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%SMGs 1.0%restricted 27.0%#8847ff 3.0%mil spec 3.0%Common 65.0%best hit $329 (51.83x)