Mad Scientist
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$106.14
163 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $95.52 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.92%
140 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (41.03% – 86.80%, 140 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $406 624 gems | 42.5% | 7 | 14.0 | 0.50× |
| ★ Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $307 472 gems | 32.1% | 14 | 14.0 | 1.00× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $218 335 gems | 22.8% | 9 | 14.0 | 0.64× |
| Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 23.0% | $6.84 10.53 gems | 1.6% | 39 | 32.2 | 1.21× |
| USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 23.0% | $2.36 3.63 gems | 0.6% | 32 | 32.2 | 0.99× |
| R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 24.0% | $1.55 2.38 gems | 0.4% | 39 | 33.6 | 1.16× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$106163 gems$1.552.38 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $106 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%covert 10.0%extraordinary 10.0%Legendary 23.0%mil spec 23.0%restricted 24.0%best hit —