Mafia
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$62.59
96.29 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $56.33 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.45%
169 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 169 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $553 851 gems | 29.5% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $220 339 gems | 11.7% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert | 14.0% | $94.44 145 gems | 23.5% | 29 | 23.7 | 1.23× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $78.83 121 gems | 21.0% | 26 | 25.3 | 1.03× |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $35.48 54.58 gems | 3.1% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $29.95 46.07 gems | 2.7% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× |
| FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $18.90 29.08 gems | 1.7% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert | 50.0% | $7.74 11.9 gems | 6.9% | 86 | 84.5 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covertFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$62.5996.29 gems$78.83121 gems1.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $62.59 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 11.0%covert 89.0%best hit $553 (8.84x)