Magnetic
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.29
41.99 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $24.56 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.16%
671 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 722 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 33 | $416 639 gems | 50.8% | 16 | 21.7 | 0.74× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 12.0% | $41.15 63.31 gems | 20.1% | 93 | 86.6 | 1.07× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 15.0% | $40.38 62.12 gems | 24.7% | 109 | 108.3 | 1.01× |
| M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $4.80 7.38 gems | 2.9% | 115 | 108.3 | 1.06× |
| Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.75 1.15 gems | 0.5% | 94 | 108.3 | 0.87× |
| USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $0.68 1.05 gems | 0.6% | 153 | 144.4 | 1.06× |
| M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.64 0.98 gems | 0.5% | 142 | 144.4 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinaryncfoodie code DGN$27.2941.99 gems$40.3862.12 gems1.48x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $27.29 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 3.0%restricted 27.0%Extraordinary 15.0%mil spec 35.0%industrial 20.0%best hit —