Major Madness
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$66.50
102 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $59.84 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.40%
1,069 openings, odds method
Variance
12.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,151 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Ancient | 1 in 50 | $1,564 2,406 gems | 52.3% | 29 | 23.0 | 1.26× |
| Souvenir Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Pistols | 1 in 50 | $519 799 gems | 17.4% | 31 | 23.0 | 1.35× |
| Souvenir M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $340 522 gems | 11.3% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× |
| Souvenir MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $169 260 gems | 5.7% | 22 | 23.0 | 0.96× |
| Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Ancient | 1 in 50 | $108 166 gems | 3.6% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | JamYoung (Gold) | Budapest 2025sticker | 10.0% | $27.17 41.8 gems | 4.5% | 115 | 115.1 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | NiKo (Gold) | Budapest 2025sticker · Ancient | 10.0% | $14.98 23.04 gems | 2.5% | 107 | 115.1 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | drop (Gold) | Budapest 2025sticker | 15.0% | $7.35 11.3 gems | 1.8% | 159 | 172.7 | 0.92× |
| Sticker | EliGE (Gold) | Budapest 2025sticker | 15.0% | $3.44 5.29 gems | 0.9% | 197 | 172.7 | 1.14× |
| Sticker | drop | Budapest 2025sticker | 40.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.0% | 443 | 460.4 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · AncientFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$66.50102 gems$1,5642,406 gems23.52x
Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · AncientSleepy Jackalope$66.50102 gems$1,5642,406 gems23.52x
Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · AncientKotix$66.50102 gems$1,5642,406 gems23.52x
Souvenir AWP | LongDog (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · AncientUSE CODE CARLZUMO$66.50102 gems$1,5642,406 gems23.52x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $66.50 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedAncient 14.0%Pistols 2.0%Legendary 4.0%other 80.0%best hit $1,564 (23.52x)