Mask Off
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.25
43.46 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $25.42 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.05%
384 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 394 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $285 439 gems | 56.1% | 21 | 19.7 | 1.07× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $90.14 139 gems | 17.7% | 16 | 19.7 | 0.81× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $39.47 60.73 gems | 15.5% | 40 | 39.4 | 1.02× |
| P250 | Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $11.25 17.3 gems | 4.4% | 33 | 39.4 | 0.84× |
| SSG 08 | Detour (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $5.20 8 gems | 3.1% | 70 | 59.1 | 1.18× |
| Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $2.95 4.54 gems | 1.7% | 60 | 59.1 | 1.02× |
| Galil AR | Kami (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $1.53 2.35 gems | 1.2% | 81 | 78.8 | 1.03× |
| MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.23 0.36 gems | 0.2% | 73 | 78.8 | 0.93× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Detour (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specthegamblingbandits.com$28.2543.46 gems$5.208 gems0.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.25 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 10.0%covert 10.0%#4b69ff 30.0%mil spec 35.0%consumer 15.0%best hit —