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Mayhem

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$89.16
137 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $80.24 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.10%
799 openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
56 openings · below min
7 days
90.58%±21.99697 openings
30 days
97.10%±20.54799 openings
since tracking started
97.10%±20.54799 openings
-0.5%59.0%118.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5629.54%±77.6—odds
7d69790.58%±22.0+0.1σodds
30d79997.10%±20.5+0.7σodds
All79997.10%±20.5+0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 847 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon1 in 40$1,532 2,357 gems47.7%2421.21.13×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 40$787 1,211 gems24.5%2021.20.94×
PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$168 258 gems10.4%4642.41.09×
Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$74.10 114 gems4.6%4442.41.04×
P250 | See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 20$61.04 93.9 gems3.8%3742.40.87×
AUG | Copperhead (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 20$46.36 71.33 gems2.9%4042.40.94×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20$27.78 42.74 gems1.7%4942.41.16×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 20$18.15 27.93 gems1.1%4542.41.06×
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20$12.97 19.95 gems0.8%4242.40.99×
P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20$6.58 10.13 gems0.4%3242.40.76×
Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted55.0%$2.78 4.28 gems1.9%468465.91.00×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$89.16137 gems$1,5322,357 gems17.18x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$89.16137 gems$1,5322,357 gems17.18x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponmiddlemasluke99$89.16137 gems$1,5322,357 gems17.18x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponbuffe$89.16137 gems$1,5322,357 gems17.18x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$89.16137 gems$1,5322,357 gems17.18x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$89.16137 gems$1,5322,357 gems17.18x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weaponaizolas$89.16137 gems$1,5322,357 gems17.18x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$89.16137 gems$1,5322,357 gems17.18x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$89.16137 gems$1,5322,357 gems17.18x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon$89.16137 gems$1,5322,357 gems17.18x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$89.16137 gems$168258 gems1.88x
Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$89.16137 gems$2.784.28 gems0.03x
Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$89.16137 gems$2.784.28 gems0.03x
Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert$89.16137 gems$74.10114 gems0.83x
MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b$89.16137 gems$18.1527.93 gems0.20x
Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$89.16137 gems$2.784.28 gems0.03x
AUG | Copperhead (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$89.16137 gems$46.3671.33 gems0.52x
Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert$89.16137 gems$74.10114 gems0.83x
Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$89.16137 gems$2.784.28 gems0.03x
Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$89.16137 gems$2.784.28 gems0.03x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$89.1690.00%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 2.5%covert 12.5%mil spec 5.0%milspec 5.0%classified 10.0%#eb4b4b 5.0%restricted 60.0%best hit $1,532 (17.18x)