Medium 50-50
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.94
13.75 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $8.04 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.24%
2,381 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,432 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 10.0% | $19.43 29.89 gems | 24.2% | 265 | 243.2 | 1.09× |
| StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 10.0% | $17.52 26.95 gems | 21.8% | 255 | 243.2 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $16.76 25.79 gems | 20.8% | 255 | 243.2 | 1.05× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $13.86 21.32 gems | 17.2% | 238 | 243.2 | 0.98× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6 | 10.0% | $11.62 17.87 gems | 14.4% | 219 | 243.2 | 0.90× |
| M249 | Warbird (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 16.0% | $0.57 0.87 gems | 1.1% | 401 | 389.1 | 1.03× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 17.0% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 0.3% | 387 | 413.4 | 0.94× |
| P250 | Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue | 17.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.1% | 412 | 413.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$8.9413.75 gems$19.4329.89 gems2.17x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · CovertElizabeth$8.9413.75 gems$17.5226.95 gems1.96x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$8.9413.75 gems$19.4329.89 gems2.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.94 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 30.0%Covert 10.0%#d32ee6 10.0%mil spec 16.0%Rare 17.0%blue 17.0%best hit —