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Melatonin

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$58.32
89.73 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $52.49 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.57%
474 openings, odds method
Variance
9.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 21
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
16 openings · below min
7 days
97.57%±27.56474 openings
30 days
97.57%±27.56474 openings
since tracking started
97.57%±27.56474 openings
-0.5%103.3%207.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1656.29%±150.0—odds
7d47497.57%±27.6+0.5σodds
30d47497.57%±27.6+0.5σodds
All47497.57%±27.6+0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 474 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$3,799 5,845 gems7.2%00.5—
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 133$1,195 1,838 gems17.1%63.61.69×
★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 100$543 835 gems10.3%54.71.05×
★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$532 818 gems10.1%54.71.05×
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 50$249 383 gems9.5%99.50.95×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33$180 277 gems10.3%1414.20.98×
★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 33$137 211 gems7.8%2014.21.41×
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic1 in 33$127 196 gems7.3%1314.20.91×
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 33$85.08 131 gems4.9%1814.21.27×
M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$64.35 99 gems6.1%1923.70.80×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 13$17.30 26.61 gems2.5%4535.51.27×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink10.0%$12.41 19.09 gems2.4%5547.41.16×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical12.5%$5.79 8.91 gems1.4%5959.31.00×
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink15.0%$4.79 7.37 gems1.4%7171.11.00×
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary15.0%$3.72 5.73 gems1.1%6371.10.89×
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted18.1%$1.96 3.01 gems0.7%7286.00.84×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$58.3289.73 gems$1,1951,838 gems20.48x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryPEPE$58.3289.73 gems$1,1951,838 gems20.48x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$58.3289.73 gems$1,1951,838 gems20.48x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$58.3289.73 gems$1,1951,838 gems20.48x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$58.3289.73 gems$1,1951,838 gems20.48x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$58.3289.73 gems$1,1951,838 gems20.48x
★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold$58.3289.73 gems$543835 gems9.30x
★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold$58.3289.73 gems$543835 gems9.30x
★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold$58.3289.73 gems$543835 gems9.30x
★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold$58.3289.73 gems$543835 gems9.30x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$58.3289.73 gems$3.725.73 gems0.06x
M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert$58.3289.73 gems$64.3599 gems1.10x
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted$58.3289.73 gems$1.963.01 gems0.03x
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$58.3289.73 gems$3.725.73 gems0.06x
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert$58.3289.73 gems$180277 gems3.09x
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryHelqxz$58.3289.73 gems$3.725.73 gems0.06x
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink$58.3289.73 gems$12.4119.09 gems0.21x
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$58.3289.73 gems$4.797.37 gems0.08x
★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$58.3289.73 gems$137211 gems2.35x
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$58.3289.73 gems$4.797.37 gems0.08x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 01:59 UTC$58.3290.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.9%gold 1.0%covert 19.5%sunny 2.0%epic 3.0%rare 3.0%pink 25.0%Mythical 12.5%Legendary 15.0%restricted 18.1%best hit $1,195 (20.48x)