Meltdown Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.66
45.63 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $26.69 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.78%
637 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 640 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $353 543 gems | 66.1% | 42 | 32.0 | 1.31× |
| P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $71.92 111 gems | 13.5% | 28 | 32.0 | 0.88× |
| AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 10.0% | $28.33 43.59 gems | 10.6% | 65 | 64.0 | 1.02× |
| MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 10.0% | $12.93 19.9 gems | 4.8% | 65 | 64.0 | 1.02× |
| M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $4.07 6.26 gems | 1.5% | 64 | 64.0 | 1.00× |
| AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 20.0% | $2.47 3.8 gems | 1.9% | 140 | 128.0 | 1.09× |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.49 2.3 gems | 1.1% | 115 | 128.0 | 0.90× |
| P90 | Grim (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec | 20.0% | $0.66 1.02 gems | 0.5% | 121 | 128.0 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedThomas the termonuclear bomb$29.6645.63 gems$1.492.3 gems0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $29.66 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 30.0%Rare 10.0%#8847ff 10.0%violet 10.0%Legendary 20.0%Mil Spec 20.0%best hit —