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Metallurgy

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$59.31
91.24 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $53.37 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.81%
446 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
31 openings · below min
7 days
92.27%±20.49412 openings
30 days
90.81%±19.69446 openings
since tracking started
90.81%±19.69446 openings
-0.5%69.0%138.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3163.24%±74.7—odds
7d41292.27%±20.5+0.2σodds
30d44690.81%±19.7+0.1σodds
All44690.81%±19.7+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 446 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 400$1,170 1,800 gems5.5%11.10.90×
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 333$1,048 1,613 gems5.9%01.30.00×
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 200$712 1,095 gems6.7%22.20.90×
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 133$535 822 gems7.5%43.31.20×
★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 100$391 602 gems7.3%54.51.12×
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 100$364 560 gems6.8%74.51.57×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 100$323 498 gems6.1%34.50.67×
★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 80$234 360 gems5.5%55.60.90×
★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 80$180 278 gems4.2%105.61.79×
★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 80$166 255 gems3.9%65.61.08×
★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 67$153 235 gems4.3%26.70.30×
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 57$130 200 gems4.3%107.81.28×
★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 50$124 191 gems4.6%128.91.35×
★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 33$111 170 gems6.2%1313.40.97×
★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 25$87.45 135 gems6.6%1817.81.01×
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold1 in 20$77.82 120 gems7.3%2622.31.17×
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · SMGs35.0%$5.69 8.75 gems3.7%159156.11.02×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted39.2%$4.97 7.64 gems3.6%163174.80.93×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold$59.3191.24 gems$1,1701,800 gems19.73x
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal$59.3191.24 gems$7121,095 gems12.00x
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal$59.3191.24 gems$7121,095 gems12.00x
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold$59.3191.24 gems$535822 gems9.01x
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold$59.3191.24 gems$535822 gems9.01x
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold$59.3191.24 gems$535822 gems9.01x
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · goldSmiling Grizzly$59.3191.24 gems$535822 gems9.01x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · SMGs$59.3191.24 gems$5.698.75 gems0.10x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$59.3191.24 gems$4.977.64 gems0.08x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$59.3191.24 gems$4.977.64 gems0.08x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$59.3191.24 gems$4.977.64 gems0.08x
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold$59.3191.24 gems$77.82120 gems1.31x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · SMGsCode: XTRA $500 lb$59.3191.24 gems$5.698.75 gems0.10x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$59.3191.24 gems$4.977.64 gems0.08x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$59.3191.24 gems$4.977.64 gems0.08x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · SMGs$59.3191.24 gems$5.698.75 gems0.10x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$59.3191.24 gems$4.977.64 gems0.08x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$59.3190.00%18
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 12.0%covert 8.1%Immortal 0.5%classified 1.0%covert knife 4.3%SMGs 35.0%restricted 39.2%best hit $1,170 (19.73x)