Mid
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$289.23
445 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $260.31 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.66%
580 openings, odds method
Variance
14.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 592 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,000 | $25.9K 39,840 gems | 5.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 400 | $9,740 14,984 gems | 9.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.35× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 100 | $6,013 9,250 gems | 23.1% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband | 1 in 33 | $3,346 5,148 gems | 38.6% | 14 | 17.8 | 0.79× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $799 1,230 gems | 18.4% | 40 | 35.5 | 1.13× |
| AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $140 215 gems | 5.4% | 58 | 59.2 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 79.7% | $0.72 1.1 gems | 0.2% | 470 | 471.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $289 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%Covert 0.3%contraband 4.0%covert 6.0%restricted 10.0%mil spec 79.7%best hit $9,740 (33.67x)