Mid V2
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.07
81.64 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $47.76 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.34%
2,257 openings, odds method
Variance
121.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 177
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,295 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$53.0781.64 gems$7,15011,000 gems134.7x
Sticker | Twistzz (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinaryThomas the termonuclear bomb$53.0781.64 gems$5,2008,000 gems97.99x
Sticker | Twistzz (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary✪ DubbleuJB$53.0781.64 gems$5,2008,000 gems97.99x
Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · ExtraordinaryLasagna$53.0781.64 gems$2,2753,500 gems42.87x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $53.07 | 90.00% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 1.8%legendary 0.0%remarkable 0.3%extraordinary 0.7%Extraordinary 0.1%contraband 0.1%High Grade 0.3%Sticker 3.0%#d32ce6 3.0%#eb4b4b 3.0%Base Grade 87.8%best hit $7,150 (134.7x)