Midnight
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$52.41
80.63 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $47.17 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.15%
85 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 85 openings and 12.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 85 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 15.0% | $188 290 gems | 59.8% | 7 | 12.7 | 0.55× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny | 15.0% | $102 157 gems | 32.5% | 15 | 12.7 | 1.18× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $13.38 20.59 gems | 4.3% | 13 | 12.7 | 1.02× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $5.65 8.7 gems | 1.8% | 16 | 12.7 | 1.25× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $3.85 5.93 gems | 1.2% | 10 | 12.7 | 0.78× |
| Glock-18 | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 15.0% | $0.90 1.38 gems | 0.3% | 13 | 12.7 | 1.02× |
| UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $0.57 0.87 gems | 0.1% | 11 | 8.5 | 1.29× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrialFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$52.4180.63 gems$13.3820.59 gems0.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $52.41 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 30.0%sunny 15.0%industrial 30.0%classified 15.0%restricted 10.0%best hit —