Mighty Knight
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.10
60.15 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $35.18 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.70%
244 openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 244 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Knight (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $1,027 1,580 gems | 14.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $294 453 gems | 12.6% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 67 | $267 410 gems | 11.4% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 10.5% | $52.79 81.22 gems | 15.8% | 19 | 25.6 | 0.74× |
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 15.0% | $41.46 63.78 gems | 17.7% | 48 | 36.6 | 1.31× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert | 17.0% | $31.15 47.92 gems | 15.1% | 45 | 41.5 | 1.08× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified | 18.0% | $17.59 27.06 gems | 9.0% | 35 | 43.9 | 0.80× |
| SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 36.0% | $3.92 6.03 gems | 4.0% | 89 | 87.8 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$39.1060.15 gems$41.4663.78 gems1.06x
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$39.1060.15 gems$41.4663.78 gems1.06x
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$39.1060.15 gems$41.4663.78 gems1.06x
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryKen$39.1060.15 gems$41.4663.78 gems1.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $39.10 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 18.5%covert 20.0%extraordinary 25.5%restricted 36.0%best hit —