Milk and Cookies
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.97
4.57 gems
Advertised RTP
89.89%
EV $2.67 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.18%
17.9K openings, odds method
Variance
18.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $116 178 gems | 43.4% | 195 | 180.6 | 1.08× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $53.69 82.6 gems | 20.1% | 174 | 180.6 | 0.96× |
| Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 1 in 100 | $26.05 40.08 gems | 9.8% | 156 | 180.6 | 0.86× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $17.85 27.46 gems | 6.7% | 199 | 180.6 | 1.10× |
| PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $2.68 4.13 gems | 8.0% | 1,437 | 1444.5 | 0.99× |
| MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 13 | $2.27 3.49 gems | 6.8% | 1,501 | 1444.5 | 1.04× |
| MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 40.0% | $0.18 0.27 gems | 2.6% | 7,224 | 7222.3 | 1.00× |
| SG 553 | Darkwing (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 40.0% | $0.18 0.27 gems | 2.6% | 7,170 | 7222.5 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.97 | 89.89% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%violet 41.0%Ancient 1.0%classified 8.0%#d32ee6 8.0%restricted 40.0%best hit —