Millionaire
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$82.69
127 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $74.43 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.17%
1,409 openings, odds method
Variance
13.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,427 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $1,756 2,701 gems | 70.8% | 40 | 42.8 | 0.93× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $112 172 gems | 10.5% | 101 | 99.9 | 1.01× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $107 165 gems | 14.4% | 113 | 142.7 | 0.79× |
| P2000 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $8.27 12.73 gems | 2.2% | 295 | 285.4 | 1.03× |
| P90 | Tiger Pit (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 30.0% | $3.64 5.6 gems | 1.5% | 432 | 428.1 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Dirty Moneysticker · High Grade | 30.0% | $1.42 2.19 gems | 0.6% | 446 | 428.1 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $82.69 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%covert knife 10.0%mil spec 20.0%Rare 30.0%High Grade 30.0%best hit $1,756 (21.23x)