Millionaire's Club
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$122.34
188 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $110.11 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.26%
3,938 openings, odds method
Variance
155.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,033 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $45.9K 70,622 gems | 41.7% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.74× |
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $7,716 11,870 gems | 14.0% | 3 | 8.1 | 0.37× |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $4,566 7,024 gems | 8.3% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.12× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic | 1 in 200 | $3,325 5,115 gems | 15.1% | 24 | 20.2 | 1.19× |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 100 | $1,160 1,785 gems | 10.5% | 39 | 40.3 | 0.97× |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 100 | $462 710 gems | 4.2% | 39 | 40.3 | 0.97× |
| M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic | 1 in 50 | $192 295 gems | 3.5% | 64 | 80.7 | 0.79× |
| Sticker | Ruby Stream (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary | 95.0% | $3.12 4.8 gems | 2.7% | 3,852 | 3831.3 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$122188 gems$7,71611,870 gems63.06x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert⭕⃤ katal #brokemouse$122188 gems$7,71611,870 gems63.06x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$122188 gems$7,71611,870 gems63.06x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $122 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%covert 1.4%epic 2.5%rare 1.0%extraordinary 95.0%best hit $45.9K (375.2x)