Mind Control
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$50.84
78.21 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $45.75 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.78%
518 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 524 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $302 465 gems | 66.1% | 50 | 52.4 | 0.95× |
| M4A1-S | Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $80.35 124 gems | 17.6% | 52 | 52.4 | 0.99× |
| UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $65.63 101 gems | 14.3% | 55 | 52.4 | 1.05× |
| P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $6.47 9.95 gems | 1.4% | 53 | 52.4 | 1.01× |
| MAG-7 | Insomnia (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $0.66 1.02 gems | 0.3% | 106 | 104.8 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | CS On The Mindsticker · Rare | 20.0% | $0.55 0.85 gems | 0.2% | 111 | 104.8 | 1.06× |
| Galil AR | Connexion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff | 20.0% | $0.20 0.31 gems | 0.1% | 97 | 104.8 | 0.93× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Connexion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$50.8478.21 gems$0.200.31 gems0.00x
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · LegendaryFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$50.8478.21 gems$80.35124 gems1.58x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $50.84 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%Legendary 10.0%mil spec 10.0%Mythical 10.0%#4b69ff 20.0%Rare 20.0%#8847ff 20.0%best hit —