Mine Field
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.42
9.87 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $5.77 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.77%
3,607 openings, odds method
Variance
14.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,664 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $1,474 2,267 gems | 2.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $192 295 gems | 33.2% | 41 | 36.6 | 1.12× |
| XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 50 | $34.24 52.67 gems | 11.9% | 79 | 73.3 | 1.08× |
| G3SG1 | The Executioner (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 17.0% | $9.13 14.04 gems | 26.9% | 619 | 622.5 | 0.99× |
| Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $7.57 11.65 gems | 13.1% | 355 | 366.4 | 0.97× |
| MP7 | Scorched (Factory New)weapon · SMGs | 10.0% | $2.22 3.41 gems | 3.8% | 374 | 366.4 | 1.02× |
| Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $1.16 1.79 gems | 4.0% | 708 | 732.8 | 0.97× |
| Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 40.0% | $0.65 1 gems | 4.5% | 1,488 | 1465.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil specLouisInRussian$6.429.87 gems$0.651 gems0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.42 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 18.0%other 2.0%mil spec 70.0%SMGs 10.0%best hit —