Minty Condition

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$34.42

52.95 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $30.97 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.50%

3,092 openings, odds method

Variance

113.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 500

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

406 openings · below min

7 days

2,432 openings · below min

30 days

76.50%±37.593,092 openings

since tracking started

76.50%±37.593,092 openings

6.5%111.0%215.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	406	110.98%±103.7	—	odds
7d	2,432	77.01%±42.4	—	odds
30d	3,092	76.50%±37.6	−0.7σ	odds
All	3,092	76.50%±37.6	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,136 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$8,074 12,421 gems	52.1%	4	6.3	0.64×
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 500	$1,360 2,092 gems	8.8%	6	6.3	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$359 552 gems	7.0%	24	18.8	1.28×
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$171 263 gems	11.0%	71	62.7	1.13×
MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$78.23 120 gems	5.1%	64	62.7	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$54.67 84.11 gems	3.5%	74	62.7	1.18×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$29.91 46.01 gems	2.9%	98	94.1	1.04×
Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$11.45 17.61 gems	3.7%	293	313.6	0.93×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	10.0%	$8.55 13.16 gems	2.8%	300	313.6	0.96×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$4.86 7.47 gems	1.6%	306	313.6	0.98×
P250 \| Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer	10.0%	$2.58 3.97 gems	0.8%	306	313.6	0.98×
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	50.0%	$0.47 0.73 gems	0.8%	1,590	1568.0	1.01×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$34.4252.95 gems$8,07412,421 gems234.6x12h

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$34.4252.95 gems$8,07412,421 gems234.6x4d

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$34.4252.95 gems$8,07412,421 gems234.6x6d

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$34.4252.95 gems$8,07412,421 gems234.6x7d

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$34.4252.95 gems$1,3602,092 gems39.51x4h

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$34.4252.95 gems$1,3602,092 gems39.51x4d

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$34.4252.95 gems$1,3602,092 gems39.51x5d

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$34.4252.95 gems$1,3602,092 gems39.51x6d

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary$34.4252.95 gems$1,3602,092 gems39.51x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$34.4252.95 gems$0.470.73 gems0.01x1m

Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )$34.4252.95 gems$11.4517.61 gems0.33x1m

P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New)weapon · consumer$34.4252.95 gems$2.583.97 gems0.07x4m

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$34.4252.95 gems$8.5513.16 gems0.25x4m

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )$34.4252.95 gems$4.867.47 gems0.14x4m

Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$34.4252.95 gems$11.4517.61 gems0.33x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$34.42	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.2%legendary 0.2%classified 10.6%restricted 54.0%mil spec 2.0%rare 3.0%industrial 10.0%Legendary 10.0%consumer 10.0%best hit $8,074 (234.6x)