Miss You
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$85.68
132 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $77.12 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.61%
167 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 167 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $899 1,383 gems | 11.7% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.80× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler - (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · Emerald | 1 in 33 | $721 1,109 gems | 28.0% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 100 | $402 618 gems | 5.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 14 | $197 303 gems | 17.9% | 16 | 11.7 | 1.37× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 13.0% | $169 260 gems | 28.5% | 21 | 21.7 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Swag (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 1 in 20 | $45.08 69.36 gems | 2.9% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.72× |
| Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $16.67 25.65 gems | 2.2% | 24 | 16.7 | 1.44× |
| Souvenir P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 15.0% | $15.81 24.33 gems | 3.1% | 28 | 25.0 | 1.12× |
| StatTrak™ MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff | 20.0% | $2.14 3.29 gems | 0.6% | 28 | 33.4 | 0.84× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | <$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 36 | 41.8 | 0.86× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler - (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · Emerald$85.68132 gems$7211,109 gems8.41x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler - (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · Emerald$85.68132 gems$7211,109 gems8.41x
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler - (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · Emerald$85.68132 gems$7211,109 gems8.41x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$85.68132 gems$197303 gems2.30x
Souvenir P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$85.68132 gems$15.8124.33 gems0.18x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$1k LB - Code *STV*$85.68132 gems<$0.010.01 gems0.00x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$85.68132 gems$197303 gems2.30x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $85.68 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%other 3.0%rare 1.0%extraordinary 7.0%restricted 13.0%Exotic 5.0%mil spec 10.0%Consumer Grade 15.0%#8847ff 20.0%consumer 25.0%best hit $899 (10.49x)