Molten Lava
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$33.14
50.98 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $29.82 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.82%
679 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 679 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $382 588 gems | 12.8% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.33× |
| AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $187 288 gems | 6.3% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $92.62 142 gems | 3.1% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| Nova | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 17.0% | $58.75 90.39 gems | 33.5% | 111 | 115.4 | 0.96× |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $53.05 81.62 gems | 35.6% | 125 | 135.8 | 0.92× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $15.95 24.54 gems | 8.0% | 105 | 101.8 | 1.03× |
| Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $1.10 1.69 gems | 0.6% | 106 | 101.8 | 1.04× |
| G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.14 0.22 gems | 0.1% | 215 | 203.7 | 1.06× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $33.14 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 21.0%mil spec 48.0%covert 16.0%restricted 15.0%best hit —