Price
$1.32
2.03 gems
Advertised RTP
89.61%
EV $1.18 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.69%
9,524 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,672 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $7.70 11.84 gems | 32.5% | 493 | 483.6 | 1.02× |
| Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $6.32 9.73 gems | 26.7% | 483 | 483.6 | 1.00× |
| PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $2.73 4.2 gems | 11.5% | 486 | 483.6 | 1.00× |
| MP9 | Green Plaid (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 20 | $1.79 2.76 gems | 7.6% | 462 | 483.6 | 0.96× |
| CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 20 | $1.49 2.3 gems | 6.3% | 469 | 483.6 | 0.97× |
| SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 25.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 5.4% | 2,387 | 2418.0 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Dirty Moneysticker · High Grade | 50.0% | $0.23 0.36 gems | 9.9% | 4,892 | 4836.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.61%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.32 | 89.61% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 5.0%industrial 10.0%Consumer Grade 5.0%consumer 5.0%Rare 25.0%High Grade 50.0%best hit —