Moon Rise
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$76.89
118 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $69.20 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.70%
359 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 371 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 10.0% | $583 898 gems | 84.3% | 38 | 37.1 | 1.02× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 10.0% | $93.81 144 gems | 13.6% | 28 | 37.1 | 0.75× |
| Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $3.15 4.85 gems | 0.9% | 90 | 74.2 | 1.21× |
| Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $1.99 3.06 gems | 0.6% | 59 | 74.2 | 0.80× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.59 2.45 gems | 0.5% | 65 | 74.2 | 0.88× |
| Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.65 1 gems | 0.2% | 91 | 74.2 | 1.23× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New)gloves · legendaryFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$76.89118 gems$583898 gems7.59x
★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New)gloves · legendaryBOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs$76.89118 gems$583898 gems7.59x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$76.89118 gems$1.592.45 gems0.02x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$76.89118 gems$1.592.45 gems0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $76.89 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 10.0%covert 10.0%industrial 20.0%consumer 20.0%restricted 40.0%best hit $583 (7.59x)