Muddy Warfare
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.95
15.31 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $8.95 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.90%
2,745 openings, odds method
Variance
9.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (66.50% – 89.30%, 2,745 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,777 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $9.95 | 89.98% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 13.5%covert knife 2.6%industrial 34.9%covert 4.0%Common 25.0%mil spec 10.0%#777777 10.0%best hit —