MUDDYWATER
A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$103.21
159 gems
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
80.42%
585 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 585 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and valuesnone published
No catalogClash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.
Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$103159 gems$3,7775,811 gems36.60x
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableKillazAce$103159 gems$2,9024,465 gems28.12x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700$103159 gems$1,1431,759 gems11.08x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$103159 gems$278428 gems2.69x
Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$103159 gems$278428 gems2.69x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, daily
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbest hit $4,703 (45.57x)