Mystic Elements
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$188.42
290 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $169.58 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.90%
330 openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 330 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $7,945 12,224 gems | 23.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $2,237 3,441 gems | 19.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $641 986 gems | 11.3% | 11 | 9.9 | 1.11× |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $522 802 gems | 15.4% | 16 | 16.5 | 0.97× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $238 366 gems | 14.0% | 30 | 33.0 | 0.91× |
| P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $69.44 107 gems | 4.1% | 33 | 33.0 | 1.00× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $57.02 87.73 gems | 3.4% | 31 | 33.0 | 0.94× |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $43.41 66.79 gems | 3.8% | 50 | 49.5 | 1.01× |
| M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $32.42 49.88 gems | 2.9% | 51 | 49.5 | 1.03× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 30.0% | $10.70 16.46 gems | 1.9% | 101 | 99.0 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$188290 gems$7,94512,224 gems42.17x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertLive @ Kick/JaekCreates$188290 gems$7,94512,224 gems42.17x
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted[MLP] Pinkie Pie$188290 gems$641986 gems3.40x
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restrictedBLEE BAZSYKHA$188290 gems$641986 gems3.40x
Latest dropsnewest first
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$188290 gems$7,94512,224 gems42.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $188 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 37.0%restricted 8.0%classified 25.0%Legendary 30.0%best hit $7,945 (42.17x)