Mystic Seas
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$33.46
51.47 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $30.11 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.57%
4,862 openings, odds method
Variance
28.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,894 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $2,116 3,255 gems | 35.1% | 25 | 24.5 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,251 1,925 gems | 20.8% | 19 | 24.5 | 0.78× |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $638 982 gems | 10.6% | 23 | 24.5 | 0.94× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · sunny | 1 in 200 | $359 553 gems | 6.0% | 30 | 24.5 | 1.23× |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $85.80 132 gems | 2.8% | 35 | 48.9 | 0.72× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 50 | $38.68 59.51 gems | 2.6% | 81 | 97.9 | 0.83× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $23.61 36.32 gems | 11.8% | 738 | 734.1 | 1.01× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $11.54 17.75 gems | 7.7% | 953 | 978.8 | 0.97× |
| Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $3.24 4.98 gems | 2.2% | 1,002 | 978.8 | 1.02× |
| M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 40.0% | $0.40 0.61 gems | 0.5% | 1,988 | 1957.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $33.46 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 37.0%covert 0.5%sunny 0.5%mil spec 22.0%Uncommon 40.0%best hit $2,116 (63.25x)