Myths & Legends
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$64.96
99.94 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $58.46 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.91%
1,635 openings, odds method
Variance
22.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,671 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $6,914 10,636 gems | 11.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $3,427 5,272 gems | 11.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 333 | $2,475 3,808 gems | 12.7% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 250 | $1,041 1,601 gems | 7.1% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.20× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $303 466 gems | 10.4% | 32 | 33.4 | 0.96× |
| P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $206 317 gems | 10.6% | 46 | 50.1 | 0.92× |
| USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $122 188 gems | 8.4% | 75 | 66.8 | 1.12× |
| USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 10.0% | $72.46 111 gems | 12.4% | 173 | 167.1 | 1.04× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 20.0% | $37.00 56.92 gems | 12.7% | 345 | 334.2 | 1.03× |
| G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 60.0% | $2.20 3.38 gems | 2.3% | 986 | 1002.6 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $64.96 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%covert 2.6%classified 7.3%Restricted 10.0%Ancient 20.0%industrial 60.0%best hit $6,914 (106.4x)