Narwhal
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.04
53.91 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $31.53 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.89%
407 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 407 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $93.27 143 gems | 29.6% | 41 | 40.7 | 1.01× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $84.16 129 gems | 26.7% | 49 | 40.7 | 1.20× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · gold | 10.0% | $74.52 115 gems | 23.6% | 41 | 40.7 | 1.01× |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $59.74 91.9 gems | 18.9% | 35 | 40.7 | 0.86× |
| MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $2.15 3.31 gems | 1.0% | 64 | 61.0 | 1.05× |
| P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.1% | 123 | 61.0 | 2.01× |
| MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.1% | 54 | 61.0 | 0.88× |
| P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.06 0.09 gems | 0.0% | 123 | 61.1 | 2.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $35.04 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 20.0%covert 10.0%gold 10.0%restricted 15.0%mil spec 30.0%#4b69ff 15.0%best hit —