Natural Selection
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$177.85
274 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $160.06 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.27%
618 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 654 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband | 1 in 50 | $2,717 4,179 gems | 33.9% | 10 | 13.1 | 0.76× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $1,540 2,369 gems | 28.9% | 24 | 19.6 | 1.22× |
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $592 910 gems | 18.5% | 32 | 32.7 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $135 207 gems | 8.4% | 68 | 65.4 | 1.04× |
| AUG | Copperhead (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $59.24 91.14 gems | 3.7% | 71 | 65.4 | 1.09× |
| Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $37.05 57 gems | 3.5% | 100 | 98.1 | 1.02× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 15.0% | $20.64 31.76 gems | 1.9% | 83 | 98.1 | 0.85× |
| SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 20.0% | $7.57 11.64 gems | 0.9% | 128 | 130.8 | 0.98× |
| MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $2.02 3.11 gems | 0.3% | 138 | 130.8 | 1.06× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$178274 gems$1,5402,369 gems8.66x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$178274 gems$20.6431.76 gems0.12x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$178274 gems$20.6431.76 gems0.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $178 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 2.0%covert 23.0%mil spec 20.0%restricted 15.0%Industrial Grade 20.0%classified 20.0%best hit $2,717 (15.28x)